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THE FUTURE OF TERRORISM
What al-Qaida Really Wants
By
Yassin Musharbash
If there is anyone who might possibly have
an inkling as to what al-Qaida are up to, it is the Jordanian
journalist Fouad Hussein. He has not only spent time in prison
with al-Zarqawi, but has also managed make contact with many of
the network's leaders. Based on correspondence with these sources,
he has now brought out a book detailing the organization's master
plan.
There must be something particularly trustworthy about the
Jordanian journalist Fouad Hussein. After all, he has managed to
get some of the the most sought after terrorists to open up to
him. Maybe it helped that they spent time together in prison many
years ago -- when Hussein was a political prisoner he successfully
negotiated for Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to be released from solitary
confinement. Or is it because of the honest and direct way in
which he puts his ideas onto paper? Whatever the reason, the
result is that a film which Hussein made about al-Zarqawi has even
been shown on al-Qaida affiliated Web sites. "That showed me that
they at least felt understood," the journalist says.
Even for an Arab journalist it is no easy matter getting in touch
with al-Qaida's inner circle. Nevertheless, Hussein, who is based
in Amman, Jordan, has succeeded in turning his correspondence with
the terrorists into a remarkable book: "al-Zarqawi - al-Qaida's
Second Generation."
If you meet Hussein, as you might when he is relaxing in Amman's
Café Vienna, you see he is calm and laid-back, without any of the
glamour of a secret service spy. But what this small, slim man has
to report is nothing less than the world's most dangerous
terrorist network's plan of action: al-Qaida's strategy for the
next two decades. It is both frightening and absurd, a lunatic
plan conceived by fanatics who live in their own world, but who
continually manage to break into the real world with their brutal
acts of violence.
One of Hussein's most sensational sources for the book, according
to what he told SPIEGEL Online, was Seif al-Adl. The Egyptian
terrorist, who is suspected of taking part in the attacks on the
American Embassies in Dar es Salaam and Nairobi in 1998, has a
ransom of US$5 million on his head from the FBI. Secret services
suspect that al-Adl is now in Iran.
To prove that he really has had contact to al-Adl, Hussein
includes in the first two pages of the book a copy of a
hand-written letter the wanted man sent to the author. In the
original document, which is 15 pages long, al-Adl describes the
disagreements between al-Zarqawi and Osama bin Laden during the
Afghanistan war. "Statements from Seif al-Adl have also crept into
the chapter on al-Qaida's strategy," explains Fouad Hussein.
An Islamic Caliphate in Seven Easy Steps
In the introduction, the Jordanian journalist writes, "I
interviewed a whole range of al-Qaida members with different
ideologies to get an idea of how the war between the terrorists
and Washington would develop in the future." What he then
describes between pages 202 and 213 is a scenario, proof both of
the terrorists' blindness as well as their brutal
single-mindedness. In seven phases the terror network hopes to
establish an Islamic caliphate which the West will then be too
weak to fight.
- The First Phase Known as "the awakening" -- this has
already been carried out and was supposed to have lasted from
2000 to 2003, or more precisely from the terrorist attacks of
September 11, 2001 in New York and Washington to the fall of
Baghdad in 2003. The aim of the attacks of 9/11 was to provoke
the US into declaring war on the Islamic world and thereby
"awakening" Muslims. "The first phase was judged by the
strategists and masterminds behind al-Qaida as very successful,"
writes Hussein. "The battle field was opened up and the
Americans and their allies became a closer and easier target."
The terrorist network is also reported as being satisfied that
its message can now be heard "everywhere."
- The Second Phase "Opening Eyes" is, according to
Hussein's definition, the period we are now in and should last
until 2006. Hussein says the terrorists hope to make the western
conspiracy aware of the "Islamic community." Hussein believes
this is a phase in which al-Qaida wants an organization to
develop into a movement. The network is banking on recruiting
young men during this period. Iraq should become the center for
all global operations, with an "army" set up there and bases
established in other Arabic states.
- The Third Phase This is described as "Arising and
Standing Up" and should last from 2007 to 2010. "There will be a
focus on Syria," prophesies Hussein, based on what his sources
told him. The fighting cadres are supposedly already prepared
and some are in Iraq. Attacks on Turkey and -- even more
explosive -- in Israel are predicted. Al-Qaida's masterminds
hope that attacks on Israel will help the terrorist group become
a recognized organization. The author also believes that
countries neighboring Iraq, such as Jordan, are also in danger.
- The Fourth Phase Between 2010 and 2013, Hussein
writes that al-Qaida will aim to bring about the collapse of the
hated Arabic governments. The estimate is that "the creeping
loss of the regimes' power will lead to a steady growth in
strength within al-Qaida." At the same time attacks will be
carried out against oil suppliers and the US economy will be
targeted using cyber terrorism.
- The Fifth Phase This will be the point at which an
Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that
by this time, between 2013 and 2016, Western influence in the
Islamic world will be so reduced and Israel weakened so much,
that resistance will not be feared. Al-Qaida hopes that by then
the Islamic state will be able to bring about a new world order.
- The Sixth Phase Hussein believes that from 2016
onwards there will a period of "total confrontation." As soon as
the caliphate has been declared the "Islamic army" it will
instigate the "fight between the believers and the
non-believers" which has so often been predicted by Osama bin
Laden.
- The Seventh Phase This final stage is described as
"definitive victory." Hussein writes that in the terrorists'
eyes, because the rest of the world will be so beaten down by
the "one-and-a-half million Muslims," the caliphate will
undoubtedly succeed. This phase should be completed by 2020,
although the war shouldn't last longer than two years.
A Serious Plan?
But just how serious is this scenario? "Al-Qaida makes no
compromises," says the book's author Fouad Hussein. He obviously
believes that this seven-point plan could well become the
guiding principle for a whole range of al-Qaida fighters.
Hussein is far from an hysterical alarmist -- in fact he is seen
as a serious journalist and his Zarqawi book is better than most
of the reports in Arabic on the subject. Only last year, the
journalist made a film which was received with great interest
and was shown on the German-French TV channel arte. In it he
provided deep insights into al-Qaida's internet propaganda
machine.
Nevertheless, there is no way the scenario he depicts can be
seen as a plan which al-Qaida can follow step by step. The
terrorist network just doesn't work like that anymore. The
significance of the central leadership has diminished and its
direct commands have lost a great deal of importance. The supposed
master plan for the years 2000 to 2020 reads in parts more like a
group of ideas cobbled together in retrospect, than something
planned and presented in advance. And not to mention the terrorist
agenda is simply unworkable: the idea that al-Qaida could set up a
caliphate in the entire Islamic world is absurd. The 20-year plan
is based mainly on religious ideas. It hardly has anything to do
with reality -- especially phases four to seven.
But that doesn't mean that we should simply discount everything
that Hussein has uncovered. A few of the steps in the agenda are
plausible. The idea that Syria will become a focus for the
Mujahedin is regarded by experts as highly likely. "Close ranks,
concentrate on getting more recruits, set up cells," was the call
to the "Mujahedin in Syria" which appeared on one Web site at the
beginning of August. From the point of view of the jihadists,
Israel and Turkey are also fairly logical targets for an
escalation of the confrontation. "Al-Qaida views every fight as a
victory, because for so long Muslims didn't have any weapons at
all," says Hussein. He may not be far off. As for Jordan, al-Qaida
leaders such as al-Zarqawi, have already made attacks on the
country. They have also stated on numerous occasions that
Jerusalem is the real target.
Equally, the idea that in the future al-Qaida could increasingly
become a movement that attracts young frustrated men, is hardly a
theory plucked out of thin air. The terror network puts a lot of
effort into its propaganda -- assumedly in order to expand its
support base.
Attacks on the West: a Means to an End
What is interesting is that major attacks against the West are not
even mentioned by Fouad Hussein. Terrorism here cannot be ignored
-- but it seems these attacks simply supplement the larger aim of
setting up an Islamic caliphate. Attacks such as those in New
York, Madrid and London would in this case not be ends in
themselves, but rather means to a achieve a larger purpose --
steps in a process of increasing insecurity in the West.
Nowadays, it is harder than ever to truly understand al-Qaida: the
organization has degenerated into branches and loosely connected
cells, related groups are taken in, and people who hardly had
anything to do with al-Qaida before, now carry out attacks in its
name. It is hard to imagine orders which come right from the top
because Osama bin Laden spends all his time struggling to survive.
At the same time, the division between foot soldiers in the
organization and sympathizers is becoming increasingly blurred. It
is all too easy to fall prey to disinformation -- al-Qaida also
excels in this area. Even Hussein's scenario should be judged
skeptically.
His book should therefore be read for what it really is: an
attempt to second guess how al-Qaida terrorists think, what they
really want and how they propose to get there.
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